Week 34

Review week 33

Result: 1,5R
Open positions: USDCAD +0,7R, Brent Oil -0,2R, USDCHF 0R

USDCAD – short open position
EURGBP – short +2R Pinbar

USDJPY – short -0,5R

USDJPY: -0,5R
This was an Ichimoku trade. After the medium tenkan – kijun cross I went short as soon as the price closed outside the kumo (white line). The chikou had also crossed the price action and MAs. I placed my stop 10 pips from the kijun and kept trailing it. I should have got out with a small profit when price had an open and close above the tenkan (the shorter white line), but I didn’t. Then price reversed on worse then expected news on the Japanese economy, stopping me out at -0,5R. At the moment the pair is almost looking bullish again, especially if price will break out of the kumo.

Looking ahead to week 34

For entries according to my trading plan I will be looking for long and short entries for following pairs:

long: AUDUSD, GBPJPY, NZDJPY, NZDUSD, Brent Oil, SPX500dd
short: USDCAD

USDCAD
Currently I am short on USDCAD and I have an add-on entry order based on last Fridays inside bar. Stop is 8 pips above Thursdays candle. TP is at 2R, which is exactly the same exit as for the main order.

USDCAD – short add-on entry

NZDJPY
I also have a long limit entry order on NZDJPY based on bullish Ichimoku and an inside bar that is a pin bar as well. I will have to watch out for a false break. If this happens it will invalidate the trade and it will give an opportunity to trade the reversal.

To keep an eye on

GBPUSD
Triangle formation coming together on 25th of October. Many technicals are coming together here. I am looking at it as a long kumo breakout. Price might break out of the kumo soon only to drop back again to retest the lower flat senkou span A. From that point I expect price to take of. I will probably be looking for a price action signal at that level and then trade back up to top of the range.
For a longer term bigger picture view, see: https://peterlbrandt.com/the-british-pound-and-a-short-lesson-on-why-most-novice-traders-lose-money/

GBPUSD – waiting for long breakout

Gold
Also Gold has some serious technical build up to the up side:

  • Tenkan above kijun
  • Price above the cloud
  • Chikou above price action, cloud and MAs
  • Senkou span A above senkou span B
  • Accelerating trend lines to the up side

But:

  • Heavy resistance between 1625 and 1640 (white lines)

Gold – build up to the up side

Once resistance is broken I am thinking of a serious move up for Gold.

Economic calendar week 34

GMTEvent
Aug 21
01:30AUAUDRBA Meeting’s Minutes
03:00NZNZDRBNZ Inflation Expectations (YoY) (Q3)
Aug 22
15:00CACADBoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
18:00USUSDFOMC Minutes
Aug 23
06:00DEEURGross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q2)
06:00DEEURGross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q2)
06:00DEEURGross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q2)
n/aEMUEURSamaras-Merkel meeting
Aug 24
n/aEMUEURSamaras-Hollande meeting
12:30USUSDDurable Goods Orders (Jul)

source: fxstreet.com

Looking ahead at week 33 and reviewing week 32

Review week 32

Result:
Brent Oil 2R
SPX500 -1R
Gold -1R
Total: 0R

Open positions:
Short USDCAD: +0,6R
Short USDJPY: -0,1R

USDCAD – Daily
USDCAD – Weekly
USDJPY – Daily
USDJPY – Weekly

Brent Oil kumo break trade

Brent Oil – Kumo break long 2R

This was kind of a kumo break trade. As price broke out of the kumo on the 19th it closed below a S&R level. It than reversed to the flat kumo top further ahead where an indecision candle formed right on the 20 EMA and the kumo. I entered at a break higher of a significant level (see chart). I placed a stop just below the indecision candle and targeted 2R just before the resistance level of 112,00. There was one retest of the flat kumo and then price just continued climbing. The overall Ichimoku picture was looking very bullish.

Brent Oil – overall Ichimoku picture

Brent Oil now deserves a pull back as price has moved away from the mean quite a bit. Last Friday formed a bullish pinbar suggesting another move up is well possible. However I rather buy from the mean. As you can see my two trades on Gold and SPX500 past week (see charts below) were entered way off of the mean. So although the PA signals on those trades were there, price did reverse (first) to the mean stopping me out in the process.

SPX500 – entry

SPX500 – Stopped

Gold – Entry

Gold – Stopped

If you want to learn more on Ichimoku trading, then you can find more links to resources on the links page. This week I got an email from the Ichimoku Trade website as they were offering a free E-book. I finished reading it and I must say it is vere comprehensive, yet consise. All the basics you need to know are explained. If you are looking for some advanced strategies to add to your arsenal, then you could consider Chris Capre’s Advanced Ichimoku course (I am a student) or make some inquiries about the educational offers at IchimokuTrade.com.

Looking at week 33

Long: AUDUSD, Brent Oil
Short: USDJPY, USDCAD, EURGBP, EURJPY
Note: Brent Oil needs pull back
Kiwi and Gold almost on level to consider longs.

Economic calendar week 33

A lot of high impact events mainly for the EURUSD. I’ll expect some fireworks there. I’ll be keeping an eye on Monday’s JPY and Fridays CAD related news events as I have some open trades on these pairs.

GMTEvent
Aug 13
23:50JPJPYBoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Aug 14
06:00DEEURGross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q2)Preliminar
06:00DEEURGross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q2)Preliminar
07:00DEEURGross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q2)Preliminar
08:30UKGBPCore Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
08:30UKGBPConsumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
n/aUKGBPBOE Inflation Letter
09:00EMUEURGross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q2)Preliminar
09:00EMUEURGross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q2)Preliminar
09:00DEEURZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Aug)
12:30USUSDRetail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
Aug 15
08:30UKGBPBank of England Minutes
08:30UKGBPClaimant Count Change (Jul)
12:30USUSDConsumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
12:30USUSDConsumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Jul)
Aug 16
09:00EMUEURConsumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
09:00EMUEURConsumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Jul)
Aug 17
06:00DEEURProducer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
12:30CACADConsumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
12:30CACADBank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Jul)
13:55USUSDReuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug)Preliminar

Source: fxstreet.com

Looking ahead at week 32 and reviewing week 31

Review week 31

Result: 1R in open position on Brent Oil, -0,2R on open position on USDJPY

Last week was a crazy volatile week for all Euro related pairs. So I did not trade them. I did get an entry long on Brent Oil that finally shot up on Friday. After my entry short on the USDJPY the position just kept moving side ways. I am still positive it will break down. All Ichimoku signals are still bearish and so is the price action. I have an extra sell order on the 77,86 level just to take adventage of a downward play.

Looking at week 32

This week is all about the USD when it comes to the Ichimoku cloud analysis. There are no major USD related news event. However, there are some major news events related to the CAD and AUD. All and all, I will be keeping an eye on trading the following pairs in following directions.

Long: AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Brent Oil, SPX500
Short: USDJPY, USDCAD

Gold did not close above the 1625 level and bounced lower. Friday it found support in the kumo and moved up and closed above the cloud. It seems like spot Gold is moving in an ever tighter range with an upward sloping support trendline and the horizontal resistance at 1625.

Economic calendar week 32

GMTEvent
Aug 07
14:00UKGBPNIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Jul)
Aug 08
09:30UKGBPBank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
Aug 09
01:30CNCNYConsumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
01:30CNCNYProducer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
01:30AUAUDUnemployment Rate s.a. (Jul)
01:30AUAUDEmployment Change s.a. (Jul)
08:00EMUEURECB Monthly Report
Aug 10
01:30AUAUDRBA Monetary Policy Statement
06:00DEEURHarmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Jul)
06:00DEEURConsumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
12:30CACADUnemployment Rate (Jul)
12:30CACADNet Change in Employment (Jul)

Source: fxstreet.com